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An End-to-End Model Reveals Losers and Winners in a Warming Mediterranean Sea ArchiMer
Moullec, Fabien; Barrier, Nicolas; Drira, Sabrine; Guilhaumon, François; Marsaleix, Patrick; Somot, Samuel; Ulses, Caroline; Velez, Laure; Shin, Yunne-jai.
The Mediterranean Sea is now recognized as a hotspot of global change, ranking among the fastest warming ocean regions. In order to project future plausible scenarios of marine biodiversity at the scale of the whole Mediterranean basin, the current challenge is to develop an explicit representation of the multispecies spatial dynamics under the combined influence of fishing pressure and climate change. Notwithstanding the advanced state-of-the-art modeling of food webs in the region, no previous studies have projected the consequences of climate change on marine ecosystems in an integrated way, considering changes in ocean dynamics, in phyto- and zoo-plankton productions, shifts in Mediterranean species distributions and their trophic interactions at the...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Biodiversity scenario; Climate change; Ecosystem model; End-to-end model; OSMOSE; Fishing; Mediterranean Sea.
Ano: 2019 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00504/61557/65469.pdf
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An iron cycle cascade governs the response of equatorial Pacific ecosystems to climate change ArchiMer
Tagliabue, Alessandro; Barrier, Nicolas; Du Pontavice, Hubert; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Cheung, William W. L.; Gascuel, Didier; Maury, Olivier.
Earth System Models project that global climate change will reduce ocean net primary production (NPP), upper trophic level biota biomass and potential fisheries catches in the future, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, projections from Earth System Models are undermined by poorly constrained assumptions regarding the biological cycling of iron, which is the main limiting resource for NPP over large parts of the ocean. In this study, we show that the climate change trends in NPP and the biomass of upper trophic levels are strongly affected by modifying assumptions associated with phytoplankton iron uptake. Using a suite of model experiments, we find 21st century climate change impacts on regional NPP range from −12.3% to +2.4% under a...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Climate change; Iron; Marine ecosystems; Net primary production; Ocean.
Ano: 2020 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00652/76417/77470.pdf
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Building bridges between global information systems on marine organisms and ecosystem models ArchiMer
Gruss, Arnaud; Palomares, Maria L. D.; Poelen, Jorrit H.; Barile, Josephine R.; Aldemita, Casey D.; Ortiz, Shelumiel R.; Barrier, Nicolas; Shin, Yunne-jai; Simons, James; Pauly, Daniel.
To facilitate the wider implementation of ecosystem modeling platforms and, thereby, to help advance ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) worldwide, tools delivering a large quantity of inputs to ecosystem models are needed. We developed a web application providing OSMOSE ecosystem models with values for trophic, growth and reproduction parameters derived from data from two global information systems (FishBase and SeaLifeBase). Our web application guides the user through simple queries to extract information from FishBase and SeaLifeBase data archives, and it delivers all the configuration files necessary for running an OSMOSE model. Here, we present our web application and demonstrate it for the West Florida Shelf ecosystem. Our software...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Web application; FishBase; SeaLifeBase; Ecosystem model; OSMOSE; Web application programming interface.
Ano: 2019 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00489/60109/67182.pdf
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Capturing the big picture of Mediterranean marine biodiversity with an end-to-end model of climate and fishing impacts ArchiMer
Moullec, Fabien; Velez, Laure; Verley, Philippe; Barrier, Nicolas; Ulses, Caroline; Carbonara, Pierluigi; Esteban, Antonio; Follesa, Cristina; Gristina, Michele; Jadaud, Angelique; Ligas, Alessandro; Díaz, Eduardo López; Maiorano, Porzia; Peristeraki, Panagiota; Spedicato, Maria Teresa; Thasitis, Ioannis; Valls, Maria; Guilhaumon, François; Shin, Yunne-jai.
The Mediterranean Sea is one of the main hotspots of marine biodiversity in the world. The combined pressures of fishing activity and climate change have also made it a hotspot of global change amidst increasing concern about the worsening status of exploited marine species. To anticipate the impacts of global changes in the Mediterranean Sea, more integrated modelling approaches are needed, which can then help policymakers prioritize management actions and formulate strategies to mitigate impacts and adapt to changes. The aim of this study was to develop a holistic model of marine biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea with an explicit representation of the spatial, multispecies dynamics of exploited resources subject to the combined influence of climate...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Ecosystem model; Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management; OSMOSE model; NEMOMED model; Eco3M-S model; Global change.
Ano: 2019 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00512/62408/66668.pdf
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Changes in rivers inputs during the last decades significantly impacted the biogeochemistry of the eastern Mediterranean basin: a modelling study ArchiMer
Pagès, R.; Baklouti, M.; Barrier, Nicolas; Richon, C.; Dutay, J.-c.; Moutin, T..
The Mediterranean Sea (MS) is a semi-enclosed sea characterized by a zonal west-east gradient of oligotrophy, where microbial growth is controlled by phosphate availability in most situations. External inputs of nutrients including Gibraltar inputs, river inputs and atmospheric deposition are therefore of major importance for the biogeochemistry of the MS. This has long been considered to be driven mainly by nutrient exchanges at Gibraltar. However, recent studies indicate that river inputs signi cantly a ect nutrients concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea, although their resulting impact on its biogeochemistry remains poorly understood. In this study, our aim was to make good this lack by addressing the large-scale and long-term impact of variations in...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Mediterranean Sea; River inputs; Coupled physical-biogeochemical model; Flexible stoichiometry model; Biogeochemistry; Nutrient.
Ano: 2020 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00599/71118/69420.pdf
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Connectivity between seamounts and coastal ecosystems in the Southwestern Indian Ocean ArchiMer
Crochelet, Estelle; Barrier, Nicolas; Andrello, Marco; Marsac, Francis; Spadone, Aurélie; Lett, Christophe.
Understanding larval connectivity patterns is critical for marine spatial planning, particularly for designing marine protected areas and managing fisheries. Patterns of larval dispersal and connectivity can be inferred from numerical transport models at large spatial and temporal scales. We assess model-based connectivity patterns between seamounts of the Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) and the coastal ecosystems of Mauritius, La Réunion, Madagascar, Mozambique and South Africa, with emphasis on three shallow seamounts (La Pérouse [LP], MAD-Ridge [MR] and Walters Shoal [WS]). Using drifter trajectory and a Lagrangian model of ichthyoplankton dispersal, we show that larvae can undertake very long dispersion, with larval distances increasing with pelagic...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Seamounts; Connectivity; Larval duration; Larval drift; Lagrangian modelling; Biophysical model; Surface drifters; Southwestern indian ocean; Ichthyop.
Ano: 2020 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00613/72461/71423.pdf
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Converging approaches for modeling the dispersal of propagules in air and sea ArchiMer
Lett, Christophe; Barrier, Nicolas; Bahlali, Meissam.
Terrestrial plants seeds, spores and pollen are often dispersed by wind. Likewise, most eggs and larvae of marine organisms are dispersed by oceanic currents. It was historically believed that the spatial scale at which dispersal occurs was orders of magnitude smaller for plants than for fish. However, recent empirical estimates of seed and larval dispersal suggest that these dispersal scales are more alike than previously thought. The modeling approaches used to simulate aerial and aquatic dispersal are also converging. Similar biophysical models are developed, in which outputs of Eulerian models simulating the main physical forcing mechanism (wind or currents) are used as inputs to Lagrangian models that include biological components (such as seed...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Propagule dispersal; Aquatic dispersal; Oceanic dispersal; Marine dispersal; Aerial dispersal; Wind dispersal; Atmospheric dispersal; Biophysical model; Eulerian model; Lagrangian model.
Ano: 2020 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00591/70333/68400.pdf
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Extreme coastal events linked with climate variation. Understanding low salinity episodes in the Bay of Brest, north-eastern Atlantic ArchiMer
Poppeschi, Coline; Charria, Guillaume; Unterberger, Maximilian; Rimmelin-maury, Peggy; Goberville, Eric; Barrier, Nicolas; Petton, Sebastien; Grossteffan, Emilie; Repecaud, Michel; Quemener, Loic; Theetten, Sebastien; Le Roux, Jean-francois; Treguer, Paul.
Aims - To detect and characterise extreme events in a coastal ecosystem by combining in situ high-frequency observations and high-resolution numerical simulations -To describe the interannual variability of extreme events in a context of climate change  -To quantify the links between extreme low salinity episodes and both large and local scale processes, using weather regimes, precipitations and river runoffs as proxies of hydro-climate forcing
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: In-situ observations; High and low frequency measurements; Extreme events; Numerical simulations; Bay of Brest; Weather regimes..
Ano: 2020 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00631/74346/73999.pdf
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Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change ArchiMer
Lotze, Heike K.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea; Eddy, Tyler D.; Cheung, William W. L.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Barange, Manuel; Barrier, Nicolas; Bianchi, Daniele; Blanchard, Julia L; Bopp, Laurent; Buchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine M.; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda C.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Fernandes, Jose A.; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-jai; Silva, Tiago A. M.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Stock, Charles A.; Verley, Philippe; Volkholz, Jan; Walker, Nicola D.; Worm, Boris.
While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (+/- 4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (+/- 11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 degrees C of warming. Projected biomass...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Climate change impacts; Marine food webs; Global ecosystem modeling; Model intercomparison; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2019 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00659/77125/78507.pdf
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Heat budget in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre: impacts of atmospheric weather regimes on the 1995 warming event ArchiMer
Barrier, Nicolas; Deshayes, Julie; Treguier, Anne-marie; Cassou, Christophe.
In the mid 1990’s, the North Atlantic subpolar gyre has shown a dramatic warming event that has been thoroughly investigated from observations and numerical simulations. Some studies suggest that it is due to an interannual, wind-driven weakening and shrinking of the gyre that facilitated the penetration of warm Atlantic Water, the weakening of the gyre being attributed to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic Pattern, which are the two dominant modes of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic. However, other studies suggest that the warming event is due to a decadal, buoyancy-driven strengthening of the meridional overturning circulation and subsequent intensification of the poleward heat transport, in response to the...
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Ano: 2015 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00218/32882/31753.pdf
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Impact of the winter North-Atlantic weather regimes on subtropical sea-surface height variability ArchiMer
Barrier, Nicolas; Treguier, Anne-marie; Cassou, Christophe; Deshayes, Julie.
Interannual variability of subtropical sea-surface-height (SSH) anomalies, estimated by satellite and tide-gauge data, is investigated in relation to wintertime daily North-Atlantic weather regimes. Sea-level anomalies can be viewed as proxies for the subtropical gyre intensity because of the intrinsic baroclinic structure of the circulation. Our results show that the strongest correlation between SSH and weather regimes is found with the so-called Atlantic-Ridge (AR) while no significant values are obtained for the other regimes, including those related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), known as the primary actor of the Atlantic dynamics. Wintertime AR events are characterized by anticyclonic wind anomalies off Europe leading to a northward shift...
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Ano: 2013 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00161/27248/25480.pdf
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Large and local-scale influences on physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Western Europe during winter ArchiMer
Treguer, Paul; Goberville, Eric; Barrier, Nicolas; L'Helguen, Stephane; Morin, Pascal; Bozec, Yann; Rimmelin-maury, Peggy; Czamanski, Marie; Grossteffan, Emilie; Cariou, Thierry; Repecaud, Michel; Quemener, Loic.
There is now a strong scientific consensus that coastal marine systems of Western Europe are highly sensitive to the combined effects of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. However, it still remains challenging to assess the spatial and temporal scales at which climate influence operates. While large-scale hydro-climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the weather regimes such as the Atlantic Ridge (AR), are known to be relevant predictors of physical processes, changes in coastal waters can also be related to local hydro-meteorological and geochemical forcing. Here, we study the temporal variability of physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters located at...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Coastal systems; Climate variability; Large-scale hydro-climatic indices; River inputs; Time-series; Weather regimes.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00192/30327/28801.pdf
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LPJmL-Med – Modelling the dynamics of the land-sea nutrient transfer over the Mediterranean region–version 1: Model description and evaluation ArchiMer
Ayache, Mohamed; Bondeau, Alberte; Pages, Rémi; Barrier, Nicolas; Ostberg, Sebastian; Baklouti, Melika.
Land forcing (water discharge and nutrient loads) is reported as one of the major sources of uncertainty limiting the capacity of marine biogeochemical models. Runoff from rivers and coastal plains delivers significant amounts of nutrients to the Mediterranean Sea from agricultural activities and urban wastewater. Several recent studies show that variations in river inputs may play a significant role in marine biogeochemical cycles and the planktonic food web throughout the entire basin. The aim of this study is to estimate the water dischargeas as well as nitrate (NO3) and phosphate (PO4) release into the Mediterranean Sea from basin-wide agriculture and inhabited areas through the implementation of the biogeochemical land-sea nutrient transfer processes...
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Ano: 2020 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00665/77756/79881.pdf
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Modeling larval dispersal for the gilthead seabream in the northwestern Mediterranean sea ArchiMer
Lett, Christophe; Barrier, Nicolas; Ourmières, Yann; Petit, Cécile; Labonne, Maylis; Bourjea, Jerome; Darnaude, Audrey M..
To investigate dispersal and connectivity between spawning and lagoon nursery habitats of the gilthead seabream, Sparus aurata, in the Gulf of Lions (northwestern Mediterranean Sea), we modeled the potential transport of the species’ larvae between its supposed main spawning site in the region (the Planier Island) and two of its main local nursery areas (the coastal lagoons of Thau and Salses-Leucate). Passive larval drift simulations using a dispersal biophysical model showed a large variability in the possible trajectories from spawning to nursery areas and in the predicted ages for larvae arrival on the two nursery sites. The most common ages at arrival obtained in the simulations (20–60 days) are broadly consistent with previous modeling studies but...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Sparus aurata; Gulf of Lions; Fish; Larvae; Models-hydrodynamic; Biophysical model; Connectivity; Otolith.
Ano: 2019 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00513/62470/66903.pdf
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Projected Effects of Climate-Induced Changes in Hydrodynamics on the Biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean Sea Under the RCP 8.5 Regional Climate Scenario ArchiMer
Pagès, Rémi; Baklouti, Melika; Barrier, Nicolas; Ayache, Mohamed; Sevault, Florence; Somot, Samuel; Moutin, Thierry.
The Mediterranean region has been shown to be particularly exposed to climate change, with observed trends that are more pronounced than the global tendency. In forecast studies based on a RCP 8.5 scenario, there seems to be a consensus that, along with an increase in temperature and salinity over the next century, a reduction in the intensity of deep-water formation and a shallowing of the mixed layer [especially in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea (MS)] are expected. By contrast, only a few studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the biogeochemistry of the MS using a 3D physical/biogeochemical model. In this study, our aim was to explore the impact of the variations in hydrodynamic forcing induced by climate change on the...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Mediterranean Sea; Coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model; RCP scenario; Biogeochemistry; Climate change.
Ano: 2020 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00659/77073/78385.pdf
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Reference levels of ecosystem indicators at multispecies maximum sustainable yield ArchiMer
Briton, Florence; Shannon, Lynne; Barrier, Nicolas; Verley, Philippe; Shin, Yunne-jai.
We investigate reference points for ecosystem indicators in support of an Ecosystem Approach to Fishery. In particular, we assess indicator capacity to detect when the Multispecies Maximum Sustainable Yield (MMSY) is reached, under a wide range of multispecies fishing strategies. The analysis was carried out using a simulation approach based on the ecosystem model OSMOSE in the southern Benguela. We show that the 13 ecosystem indicators have reference points at MMSY that are highly variable across fishing strategies. The state of the ecosystem at MMSY is so variable across fishing strategies that it is not possible to set reference points without considering the fishing strategy. However, strategy-specific reference points were found to constitute robust...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Ecosystem-based fishery management; Fishing strategy; Indicator reference point; Multispecies MSY; Southern Benguela.
Ano: 2019 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00504/61572/68139.pdf
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Response of North-Atlantic Ocean circulation to atmospheric weather regimes ArchiMer
Barrier, Nicolas; Cassou, Christophe; Deshayes, Julie; Treguier, Anne-marie.
A new framework is proposed for investigating the atmospheric forcing of North-Atlantic ocean circulation. Instead of using classical modes of variability, such as the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East-Atlantic Pattern, we here use the weather regimes paradigm. Using this framework we avoid problems associated with the assumptions of orthogonality and symmetry that are particular to modal analysis and known to be unsuitable for the NAO. Using ocean-only historical and sensitivity experiments, we investigate the impacts of the four winter weather regimes on horizontal and overturning circulations. Our results suggest that the Atlantic Ridge (AR), NAO− and NAO+ regimes induce a fast (monthly to interannual timescales) adjustment of the gyres via...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Circulation; Dynamics; Meridional overturning circulation; Atm; Ocean Structure; Phenomena; Gyres; North Atlantic Oscillation; Wind; Physical Meteorology and Climatology; Climate classification; Regimes; Models and modeling; Ocean models.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00161/27258/25467.pdf
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The Cumulative Effects of Fishing, Plankton Productivity, and Marine Mammal Consumption in a Marine Ecosystem ArchiMer
Fu, Caihong; Xu, Yi; Guo, Chuanbo; Olsen, Norm; Grüss, Arnaud; Liu, Huizhu; Barrier, Nicolas; Verley, Philippe; Shin, Yunne-jai.
The marine ecosystem off British Columbia (BC), Canada, has experienced various changes in the last two decades, including reduced lipid-rich zooplankton biomass, increased marine mammals, and deteriorated commercial fisheries, particularly those targeting pelagic species such as Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii). Understanding how stressors interactively and cumulatively affect commercially important fish species is key to moving toward ecosystem-based fisheries management. Because it is challenging to assess the cumulative effects of multiple stressors by using empirical data alone, a dynamic, individual-based spatially explicit ecosystem modeling platform such as Object-oriented Simulator of Marine Ecosystems (OSMOSE) represents a valuable tool to...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Cumulative effect; Ecosystem-based fisheries management; Ecological indicator; Ecosystem modeling; Synergism.
Ano: 2020 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00654/76615/77768.pdf
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